Predictions

Prediction markets beside the perps, rather than on a separate site.

Politics, macro, sport and crypto questions, browsable by category and filterable by what is resolving soon. Take a position on either side of a question, and manage it in the same place as everything else you hold.

How they differ from perps

A prediction market settles to an outcome decided by a resolution process, not to a price. That changes what you are exposed to:

• The resolution criteria are the product. Read them before you take a position — a question can resolve against what you assumed it meant.
• Resolution can be disputed, and can take time after the event itself.
• Many markets are thin, so you may not be able to exit before resolution at a price you like.

Prediction positions are kept out of the journal's performance figures, which cover perps only.